Workstream C
Relevance and Application of PrePARED Project Results Throughout the UK
Workpackage 5: Identifying generalities in fish and marine mammal response to OWF development
Generalities in changes in ecological niches available to fish assemblages and functional groups (e.g. an increase in demersal fish species) related to installation and age of OWF structures in the marine environment will be identified, as well as species-specific changes, and will therefore be widely relevant to areas of future OWF development around the UK (Task 5.1).
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The transferability of documented harbour porpoise responses to OWF development in the Moray Firth will be tested using passive acoustic monitoring data from the Firth of Forth region (NnG and Seagreen), from Scottish Government’s Marine Directorate’s East Coast Marine Mammal Acoustic Study (ECOMMAS12), plus data from any other UK sites where data collection can be encouraged using similar study designs, particularly at sites with contrasting ecological conditions and/or porpoise densities (Task 5.2).
This will improve understanding of variation in dose-response in different ecological and OWF construction contexts.
Led by Dr Anthony Bicknell from University of Exeter.
To what extent are fish in the Firth of Forth and Moray Firth responding to OWF development/presence in a similar way?
Led by Dr Cormac Booth from SMRU Consulting.
Assessing transferability of Moray Firth porpoise responses to OWF development, to other regions and developments
Workpackage 6: Assessment of minimum data requirements and survey design for predator-prey studies in other UK marine areas
Seabird and marine mammal spatial distributions will be linked to prey for the data-rich areas of the Firth of Forth and Moray Firth, in Workstreams A and B (Tasks 2.1 and 4.1). However, no other areas around the UK have the same quantity and quality of data on fish, marine mammals and seabirds, as will be available to the PrePARED project.
Work under Task 6.1 and Task 6.2 will evaluate the extent to which seabird and marine mammal species distribution model performance changes as data quality or availability declines.
These results will inform recommendations on which data are important to collect when undertaking predator-prey studies in other marine areas and the potential contribution of prey data to reducing uncertainty in impact assessment tool outputs.
Using biotic and abiotic variables, a detailed assessment of habitat similarity between areas of interest for future OWF development and the Moray Firth/Firth of Forth study sites will be conducted (Task 6.3).
This work will be carried out in close collaboration and discussion with the NE-led POSEIDON project to ensure there is no duplication of effort and that seabed habitat mapping is shared between the two projects, where possible.
This habitat similarity analysis will be used to assess the confidence with which we would expect seabird, marine mammal and prey response to OWF development to be similar to that documented in the PrePARED project for English/Welsh OWF project impact assessments.
The assessment will also feed into survey design recommendations (Task 6.4), determining whether extensive surveys will be required (for non-similar sites) or more targeted surveys for ‘ground truthing’ (for marine areas with similar habitat types to Moray/Forth), and scoping as to where a complementary predator/prey project would be best located.
Minimum data requirements to inform predator-prey studies, informed by work in Tasks 6.1 and 6.2, along with outputs from the habitat similarity analysis (Task 6.3) will be integrated to form a set of recommendations and a high-level scope, describing how best to carry out a complementary project to PrePARED (Task 6.4).
Both the habitat similarity work and the survey design recommendations will be developed in close collaboration and discussion with Natural England, Natural Resources Wales, BEIS, Defra and TCE, plus any other parties interested in taking forward a complementary project.
The understanding of mechanisms driving observed predator response to OWF development, elucidated by the PrePARED project could be fed into a North Sea ecosystem model such as that being developed by EcoSTAR13.
The ecosystem model could then be used to make predictions for other regions such as the southern North Sea and these predictions could be tested and validated with empirical data collected in the southern North Sea.
Led by Dr Esther Jones from BioSS.
Minimum data requirements to understand how prey and OWF development influence seabird distribution and movements
Led by Prof. Paul Thompson from University of Aberdeen.
Minimum data requirements to understand how prey + OWF development influence marine mammal distribution and behaviour
Led by Dr Matthew Witt from University of Exeter.
Assessment of habitat similarity between northern North Sea and rest of the UK, using biotic and abiotic variables.
Led by Dr Cormac Booth from SMRU Consulting.
Recommendations on survey design for predator-prey studies in relation to OWF development in other UK marine areas.
Workpackage 7: Development and application of impact assessment tools for cumulative impact assessment
The PrePARED project’s new insights into marine mammal behaviour in and around OWF in relation to prey will be integrated into the impact assessment models, DEPONS and iPCoD (Task 7.1).Â
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DEPONS will be validated using known construction scenarios from Beatrice and Moray East OWFs and empirical data collected in the Moray Firth on changes in porpoise distribution and feeding associated with pile driving and vessel noise.Â
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More biological realism will be integrated into the impact assessment tool, SeabORD, which will then be tested and validated by assessing whether observed changes in breeding success of seabirds at the Isle of May correlate with those predicted by SeabORD (Task 7.2).Â
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To date, SeabORD has only been used in impact assessments in the Forth & Tay region of Scotland. In the PrePARED project, SeabORD will be applied to the region around the Flamborough & Filey Coast SPA to test transferability of the tool to a new region for which prey data are currently lacking (Task 7.3).
Finally, the PrePARED project will provide recommendations on improved cumulative impact assessment approaches, informed by the project’s findings.Â
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The new evidence on how predator distribution, behaviour and energetics changes in relation to prey fields and OWF development, both from the PrePARED project, along with other relevant emerging evidence arising during the course of the project where possible, will be integrated into updated approaches and recommendations on cumulative effects assessment (Task 7.4 and 7.5).Â
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We will provide a set of recommendations for how updated impact assessment models could be used to improve cumulative impact assessments.Â
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This will include how PrePARED project findings could be incorporated into the Cumulative Effects Framework (CEF)14 (noting that the CEF project will finish before the PrePARED recommendations on cumulative impact assessments will be available)
Led by Dr Cormac Booth from SMRU Consulting.Â
Integration of PrePARED learning into DEPONS + iPCoD; validation of DEPONS using data from constructed OWFs in the Moray Firth.
Led by Dr Kate Searle from UKCEH.
Adding biological realism to individual-based models for estimating consequences of OWF impacts on protected seabird populations.
Led by Dr Kate Searle from UKCEH.
Testing and validating SeabORD in the Firth of Forth and at Flamborough & Filey Coast SPA.
Led by Dr Cormac Booth from SMRU Consulting.
Realistic cumulative impact assessment (CIA) using learning from PrePARED + 10 years of marine mammal + OWF research.
Led by Dr Kate Searle from UKCEH.
Integration of PrePARED findings to provide recommendations on updated approaches to cumulative impact assessment for seabirds.